Five indicators at full R/D strength
How often did observations matching exactly five indicators and 100% R/D strength match the frozen follow-displayed rule?
- Playbook
- Indicators
- R/D strength
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- 01The thoughtAre RISE forecasts more reliable than DROP forecasts?
- 02How Tradour turned it into a testWithin the Consumer Discretionary rule, did RISE-labelled observations match their frozen direction more often than DROP-labelled ones?
- 03What the data showedThe estimate remains compatible with the balanced comparator.
- 04What happened nextAwaiting a future sealed retest; not promoted into the Playbook.
Research archive
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Negative and unfinished investigations stay visible. They prevent repeated work and show where the evidence stops.
Promising ideas
Exploratory, not promotedHigh-strength RISE observations
How often did Consumer Discretionary RISE observations with at least 90% R/D strength match their frozen direction?
- RISE
- 90%+ R/D
- Consumer Discretionary
RISE timing: BMO versus AMC
Within Consumer Discretionary RISE observations, how did BMO and AMC directional success rates compare?
- RISE
- BMO
- AMC
Recently explored
No clear aggregate edgeRISE versus DROP in Consumer Discretionary
Within the Consumer Discretionary rule, did RISE-labelled observations match their frozen direction more often than DROP-labelled ones?
- BSP
- Direction
- Consumer Discretionary
Entertainment after the 2024 discovery period
From 2025 onward, how often did Entertainment observations match the frozen opposite-displayed direction rule?
- Entertainment
- Later period
- Playbook
Consumer Discretionary across a frozen time split
How did the Consumer Discretionary directional success rate compare before and after the predeclared 31 December 2024 split?
- Time split
- Robustness
- Consumer Discretionary
Worth another look
Needs data or a future retestEntertainment result by year
How did the frozen Entertainment opposite-direction success rate vary by year?
- Entertainment
- Stability
- Year
Peer Earnings Catch-Up
Do later-reporting peers catch up when earlier peers report strongly and the target has not repriced?
- Earnings
- Peers
- Price reaction
Post-Earnings Drift
After the first earnings reaction, does the stock continue in the same direction over later sessions?
- Earnings
- Hold period
- Market-adjusted return
Post-Earnings Exit Timing
Is there a repeatable window that captures most favourable post-earnings movement without fitting one company?
- MFE
- MAE
- Intraday
Didn't hold up
Useful negative findingsBefore-open versus after-close
Within the Consumer Discretionary rule, did BMO and AMC source labels have different frozen directional success rates?
- Earnings
- BMO
- AMC
R/D strength and Consumer Discretionary outcomes
Within the Consumer Discretionary rule, how did frozen directional success vary across R/D strength bands?
- R/D strength
- Consumer Discretionary
- Subgroups
Indicator count and historical outcomes
Within the Consumer Discretionary rule, how did directional success vary across source indicator-count bands?
- Indicators
- Consumer Discretionary
- Subgroups
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