Lab research — Tradour

What we tested

How often did Consumer Discretionary RISE observations with at least 90% R/D strength match their frozen direction?

The specification was frozen before this run. Neutral and unevaluated cases do not enter the directional success-rate denominator.

What we found

61.1% matched the frozen rule.

55 matched and 35 did not, from 90 directional cases.

Eligible observations: 129
Distinct tickers: 56
Evidence period: 21 Dec 2022 – 7 Aug 2026

How strong is the evidence?

Keep the range beside the headline.

The 95% Wilson interval is 50.8% to 70.5%. The archive was already exposed, so this is not a clean holdout result.

0%50% comparator100%

What this does not prove

A useful historical result is not a trading instruction.

The outcome is the frozen rule-aligned legacy directional result, not a canonical market return.
This archive was available before the Lab test was registered, so the result is exploratory rather than clean out-of-sample evidence.
Repeated tickers and shared market events may reduce the effective sample size.

What could we test next?

Fork the question; never rewrite this result.

A variation becomes a new frozen research object linked back to this study.

Test a variation

Research recipe

Dataset: bsp-evidence-2026-08-19
Archive through: 2026-08-19
Engine: tradour-lab-engine-v1
Outcome: frozen_rule_directional_success
Minimum sample: 20
Functions: filter_observations → calculate_sample_summary → wilson_confidence_interval

Original specification preserved for reruns. Post-result variations create a new study.

{
  "spec_version": "tradour-lab-spec-v1",
  "question": "How often did Consumer Discretionary RISE observations with at least 90% R/D strength match their frozen direction?",
  "hypothesis": "Consumer Discretionary RISE observations at 90%+ R/D strength exceed a balanced 50% comparator.",
  "universe": "canonical_bsp_rule_observations",
  "rule_ids": [
    "consumer-discretionary-follow-displayed-v1"
  ],
  "displayed_directions": [
    "rise"
  ],
  "source_sessions": [],
  "sectors": [],
  "industries": [],
  "min_total_indicators": null,
  "min_rd_confidence": 0.9,
  "date_start": null,
  "date_end": null,
  "group_by": null,
  "minimum_sample": 20,
  "chronological_split": "2024-12-31",
  "outcome_metric": "frozen_rule_directional_success",
  "benchmark": "balanced_direction_comparator_50_percent"
}