Did not hold up
Tradour ResearchIndicator count and historical outcomes
The declared pattern was not present consistently across the eligible groups.
What we tested
Within the Consumer Discretionary rule, how did directional success vary across source indicator-count bands?
The specification was frozen before this run. Neutral and unevaluated cases do not enter the directional success-rate denominator.
What we found
54.3% matched the frozen rule.
334 matched and 281 did not, from 615 directional cases.
- Eligible observations
- 747
- Distinct tickers
- 69
- Evidence period
- 22 Nov 2022 – 7 Aug 2026
How strong is the evidence?
Keep the range beside the headline.
The 95% Wilson interval is 50.4% to 58.2%. The archive was already exposed, so this is not a clean holdout result.
See it
Where the result changed
What this does not prove
A useful historical result is not a trading instruction.
- The outcome is the frozen rule-aligned legacy directional result, not a canonical market return.
- This archive was available before the Lab test was registered, so the result is exploratory rather than clean out-of-sample evidence.
- Repeated tickers and shared market events may reduce the effective sample size.
What could we test next?
Fork the question; never rewrite this result.
A variation becomes a new frozen research object linked back to this study.
Research recipe
- Dataset
- bsp-evidence-2026-08-19
- Archive through
- 2026-08-19
- Engine
- tradour-lab-engine-v1
- Outcome
- frozen_rule_directional_success
- Minimum sample
- 20
- Functions
- filter_observations → calculate_sample_summary → compare_groups → wilson_confidence_interval
Original specification preserved for reruns. Post-result variations create a new study.
{
"spec_version": "tradour-lab-spec-v1",
"question": "Within the Consumer Discretionary rule, how did directional success vary across source indicator-count bands?",
"hypothesis": "Observations with more source indicators have higher directional success rates.",
"universe": "canonical_bsp_rule_observations",
"rule_ids": [
"consumer-discretionary-follow-displayed-v1"
],
"displayed_directions": [],
"source_sessions": [],
"sectors": [],
"industries": [],
"min_total_indicators": null,
"min_rd_confidence": null,
"date_start": null,
"date_end": null,
"group_by": "indicator_band",
"minimum_sample": 20,
"chronological_split": "2024-12-31",
"outcome_metric": "frozen_rule_directional_success",
"benchmark": "balanced_direction_comparator_50_percent"
}