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TradeIRL explained
The language and safeguards used in TradeIRL research.
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TradeIRL explained
What is a TradeIRL directional feature?
A TradeIRL directional feature records how a source labelled an expected move. It is research data, not an instruction to trade.
TradeIRL explained
Displayed and raw direction
Raw direction is the source label before transformation; displayed direction is the label after the documented presentation rule. TradeIRL keeps both so inversion cannot become hidden interpretation.
TradeIRL explained
Indicator count
Indicator count records how many source indicators contributed to an observation under the BSP convention. It is a descriptive feature, not a validated confidence score.
TradeIRL explained
How strong was the source signal?
Rise/Drop strength is a source-provided feature describing the degree attached to a directional label under its own convention. TradeIRL does not treat it as calibrated probability.
TradeIRL explained
Historical and prospective evidence
A look back checks results already known. A fair live test records the idea before the result exists, so hindsight cannot rewrite it.
TradeIRL explained
Prospective validation
Live validation tests a fixed candidate on future qualifying examples recorded before the results. It adds evidence without letting the rule learn from the answers being scored.
TradeIRL explained
The TradeIRL evidence lifecycle
The TradeIRL evidence lifecycle keeps exploratory, candidate, validated, Playbook and prospective states distinct. Movement requires explicit evidence and review rather than persuasive presentation.
TradeIRL explained
What does Exploratory mean?
Exploratory means a pattern was observed while questions, cohorts or thresholds were still being examined. It is useful for forming hypotheses but already exposed to selection.
TradeIRL explained
What does Candidate mean?
Candidate means an exploratory pattern has been restated as a precise, versioned hypothesis suitable for further testing. It has a plan, not yet the required validating evidence.
TradeIRL explained
What does Validated mean?
Validated means a candidate has met the repository's approved evidence, reproducibility and review requirements for that claim. The status remains scoped to its version and limitations.
TradeIRL explained
What is the TradeIRL Playbook?
The TradeIRL Playbook is the governed home for findings that meet the required evidence and publication state. Ideas being tested remain clearly separate from established entries.
TradeIRL explained
What is a canonical outcome?
A canonical outcome is the versioned primary measure TradeIRL approves for a research question. It fixes timing, calendar, price fields, horizon, direction and edge cases before comparison.
TradeIRL explained
What is a legacy outcome?
A legacy outcome is a historical measure retained for reproduction and provenance even though it is not the current canonical definition. It must remain visibly labelled and separate.
TradeIRL explained
Why a zero move is Neutral
A Neutral outcome records an exactly zero directional move under the canonical definition. It belongs neither in Rise nor Drop and should not be forced into success or failure.
TradeIRL explained
How to read a sector finding
A sector finding describes a pattern within a defined sector cohort under a specified taxonomy and outcome. It does not imply every company in the sector behaves alike.
TradeIRL explained
How a finding becomes more credible
A finding becomes more credible as its definition, data, effect, uncertainty, robustness, independence and prospective performance withstand separate checks. No single percentage supplies credibility.
TradeIRL explained
What is a research cohort?
A research group is the set of examples that meet a fixed rule for a question. Its boundary decides which wider group the result can describe.
TradeIRL explained
TradeIRL publication gates
A TradeIRL publication gate is a defined check that content or evidence must pass before entering a public state. It protects truthfulness, provenance, accessibility and security.
TradeIRL explained
Why TradeIRL keeps an audit trail
An audit trail preserves sources, versions, transformations, decisions and corrections so a result can be reproduced and its history understood. It prevents later knowledge from silently rewriting earlier claims.
TradeIRL explained
Why no current observation can be useful
No current observation means the approved data and rules produced nothing qualifying for the present period, or the required data is unavailable. It is an honest product state, not a failure to invent activity.