Lab research — Tradour

What we tested

How did the Consumer Discretionary directional success rate compare before and after the predeclared 31 December 2024 split?

The specification was frozen before this run. Neutral and unevaluated cases do not enter the directional success-rate denominator.

What we found

54.3% matched the frozen rule.

334 matched and 281 did not, from 615 directional cases.

Eligible observations: 747
Distinct tickers: 69
Evidence period: 22 Nov 2022 – 7 Aug 2026

How strong is the evidence?

Keep the range beside the headline.

The 95% Wilson interval is 50.4% to 58.2%. The archive was already exposed, so this is not a clean holdout result.

0%50% comparator100%

See it

Where the result changed

Through 2024-12-3152.7%

372 directional cases

After 2024-12-3156.8%

243 directional cases

What this does not prove

A useful historical result is not a trading instruction.

The outcome is the frozen rule-aligned legacy directional result, not a canonical market return.
This archive was available before the Lab test was registered, so the result is exploratory rather than clean out-of-sample evidence.
Repeated tickers and shared market events may reduce the effective sample size.

What could we test next?

Fork the question; never rewrite this result.

A variation becomes a new frozen research object linked back to this study.

Test a variation

Research recipe

Dataset: bsp-evidence-2026-08-19
Archive through: 2026-08-19
Engine: tradour-lab-engine-v1
Outcome: frozen_rule_directional_success
Minimum sample: 20
Functions: filter_observations → calculate_sample_summary → compare_groups → wilson_confidence_interval

Original specification preserved for reruns. Post-result variations create a new study.

{
  "spec_version": "tradour-lab-spec-v1",
  "question": "How did the Consumer Discretionary directional success rate compare before and after the predeclared 31 December 2024 split?",
  "hypothesis": "The Consumer Discretionary result is similar on both sides of the frozen split.",
  "universe": "canonical_bsp_rule_observations",
  "rule_ids": [
    "consumer-discretionary-follow-displayed-v1"
  ],
  "displayed_directions": [],
  "source_sessions": [],
  "sectors": [],
  "industries": [],
  "min_total_indicators": null,
  "min_rd_confidence": null,
  "date_start": null,
  "date_end": null,
  "group_by": "chronological_period",
  "minimum_sample": 20,
  "chronological_split": "2024-12-31",
  "outcome_metric": "frozen_rule_directional_success",
  "benchmark": "balanced_direction_comparator_50_percent"
}