Interesting, but needs more data
Tradour ResearchEntertainment result by year
The eligible directional sample is too small for a firm reading.
What we tested
How did the frozen Entertainment opposite-direction success rate vary by year?
The specification was frozen before this run. Neutral and unevaluated cases do not enter the directional success-rate denominator.
What we found
65% matched the frozen rule.
39 matched and 21 did not, from 60 directional cases.
- Eligible observations
- 71
- Distinct tickers
- 8
- Evidence period
- 19 Jan 2023 – 7 Aug 2026
How strong is the evidence?
Keep the range beside the headline.
The 95% Wilson interval is 52.4% to 75.8%. The archive was already exposed, so this is not a clean holdout result.
See it
Where the result changed
What this does not prove
A useful historical result is not a trading instruction.
- The outcome is the frozen rule-aligned legacy directional result, not a canonical market return.
- This archive was available before the Lab test was registered, so the result is exploratory rather than clean out-of-sample evidence.
- Repeated tickers and shared market events may reduce the effective sample size.
What could we test next?
Fork the question; never rewrite this result.
A variation becomes a new frozen research object linked back to this study.
Research recipe
- Dataset
- bsp-evidence-2026-08-19
- Archive through
- 2026-08-19
- Engine
- tradour-lab-engine-v1
- Outcome
- frozen_rule_directional_success
- Minimum sample
- 20
- Functions
- filter_observations → calculate_sample_summary → compare_groups → wilson_confidence_interval
Original specification preserved for reruns. Post-result variations create a new study.
{
"spec_version": "tradour-lab-spec-v1",
"question": "How did the frozen Entertainment opposite-direction success rate vary by year?",
"hypothesis": "The Entertainment opposite-direction result is directionally stable across years.",
"universe": "canonical_bsp_rule_observations",
"rule_ids": [
"entertainment-opposite-displayed-v1"
],
"displayed_directions": [],
"source_sessions": [],
"sectors": [],
"industries": [],
"min_total_indicators": null,
"min_rd_confidence": null,
"date_start": null,
"date_end": null,
"group_by": "year",
"minimum_sample": 20,
"chronological_split": "2024-12-31",
"outcome_metric": "frozen_rule_directional_success",
"benchmark": "balanced_direction_comparator_50_percent"
}