Interesting, but needs more data

Entertainment result by year

The eligible directional sample is too small for a firm reading.

Tradour Research

What we tested

How did the frozen Entertainment opposite-direction success rate vary by year?

The specification was frozen before this run. Neutral and unevaluated cases do not enter the directional success-rate denominator.

What we found

65% matched the frozen rule.

39 matched and 21 did not, from 60 directional cases.

Eligible observations
71
Distinct tickers
8
Evidence period
19 Jan 2023 – 7 Aug 2026

How strong is the evidence?

Keep the range beside the headline.

The 95% Wilson interval is 52.4% to 75.8%. The archive was already exposed, so this is not a clean holdout result.

0%50% comparator100%

See it

Where the result changed

202361.1%
18 directional cases
202476.9%
13 directional cases
202564.7%
17 directional cases
202658.3%
12 directional cases

What this does not prove

A useful historical result is not a trading instruction.

  • The outcome is the frozen rule-aligned legacy directional result, not a canonical market return.
  • This archive was available before the Lab test was registered, so the result is exploratory rather than clean out-of-sample evidence.
  • Repeated tickers and shared market events may reduce the effective sample size.

What could we test next?

Fork the question; never rewrite this result.

A variation becomes a new frozen research object linked back to this study.

Test a variation
Research recipe
Dataset
bsp-evidence-2026-08-19
Archive through
2026-08-19
Engine
tradour-lab-engine-v1
Outcome
frozen_rule_directional_success
Minimum sample
20
Functions
filter_observations → calculate_sample_summary → compare_groups → wilson_confidence_interval

Original specification preserved for reruns. Post-result variations create a new study.

{
  "spec_version": "tradour-lab-spec-v1",
  "question": "How did the frozen Entertainment opposite-direction success rate vary by year?",
  "hypothesis": "The Entertainment opposite-direction result is directionally stable across years.",
  "universe": "canonical_bsp_rule_observations",
  "rule_ids": [
    "entertainment-opposite-displayed-v1"
  ],
  "displayed_directions": [],
  "source_sessions": [],
  "sectors": [],
  "industries": [],
  "min_total_indicators": null,
  "min_rd_confidence": null,
  "date_start": null,
  "date_end": null,
  "group_by": "year",
  "minimum_sample": 20,
  "chronological_split": "2024-12-31",
  "outcome_metric": "frozen_rule_directional_success",
  "benchmark": "balanced_direction_comparator_50_percent"
}